So why is oil over $120 per barrel?

[tafdom]

If you follow it daily as I do, It has nothing to do with OPEC now. It's the traders that are pushing the prices up because historical school out is the start of the driving season until the end August. Don't hate the game, hate the player in this case. The oil companies have actually held back there prices and there profits are down with the high barrell prices. XOM still has to buy 50% of there oil and not passing as much on to us as normal.

 

Terry you are right on with the traders.  JP Morgan and G.S.  But I do believe that OPEC sets the baseline with prices and allocation of supply.

Don, Great find on that site.


Daryn, I know I'm right. Yes OPEC sets the base but I guess I have to show some again. Good point on not having a car note. In 03 "7 months before I broke my back" I bought a new 03 Saturn vue for mama and a 03 Ram quad cab for me. With the money I made from oil.

I posted yesterday the market drives oil and it seems some don't think so. With all due respect... Here is 1 ONE  actual etf chart for oil for 365 days to date. It looks to me that it is up from 47.39 to  99.92. Do the math.

And low and behold a statement TODAY from the OPEC secretary general. Unlike some, I post what I know for a fact because my name and my rep is on it. I may not know a lot, but what I know, I know well and do my homework and from first hand experience. Food, autos, and most anything mechanical. I was the best in my field because if I didn't know the answer, I went to the people who did for the right one.  When I need help here, I ask  the pros I know have the answer from there chosen field or there years on the subject. Cigars, hvac, electronics, computers...  I've been called and rebuted on a few things I just let go because they were stupid and flexing there testerone or something. It's my turn! 




 
Press statement by HE Abdalla Salem El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General


Latest press releases
Press statement by OPEC Secretary General, HE Abdalla Salem El-Badri (Vienna, Austria, 8 May 2008)
 
No 7/2008
Vienna, Austria - 8 May 2008
In recent months, oil prices have become increasingly volatile, mainly driven by financial market developments and the increased flow of speculative funds into oil futures. The turmoil in some global equity markets and the considerable depreciation in the US dollar have encouraged investors to seek better returns in commodities, particularly in the crude oil futures market. This has driven prices higher.

There is clearly no shortage of oil in the market. OECD commercial oil stocks remain above the five-year average, with days of forward cover at a comfortable level of more than 53 days. US crude inventories, meanwhile, rose by almost six million barrels last week, which is a further indication that oil supplies are plentiful. OPEC Member Countries continue to produce at more than 32 million barrels a day (mb/d). In addition, a number of new OPEC crude oil projects have started to come on-stream and OPEC spare capacity continues to increase, with the figure currently standing above 3 mb/d. At the same time, crude oil movements indicate that some Member Countries are unable to find buyers for their additional supply.

OPEC will continue to be proactive and monitor these developments closely. The Organization stands ready to act if the market shows a need for any further measures.

The Organization will continue to strive for a stable and balanced market, with prices that reflect fundamentals, and are favourable to both producers and consumers.












Monthly Basket Price

Apr-07
63.55

May-07
64.48

Jun-07
66.89

Jul-07
71.89

Aug-07
68.71

Sep-07
74.18

Oct-07
79.32

Nov-07
88.84

Dec-07
87.05

Jan-08
88.35

Feb-08
90.64

Mar-08
99.03

Apr-08
105.16

May-08
122.07

For more actual oil info try the  http://www.opec.org/home/  It's a pretty cool site.

 

[Skipper the cigar aFISHinodo]

Taf, while I am not an analyst, this is the field I work in. These ETF's are simply exchange traded funds. The market is reacting to the conditions. The conditions are set by OPEC and the prediction that the quantity is dwindling and the demand is increasing. Check out that chart I posted.

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[US_Tank]

I do agree with you on that part also Skipper!   All these factors that we mentioned are really coming into play here.

[Parkster]

I dont do charts and markets ............... pure testosterone here, and hands on actual experience from the coal face in the worlds shit holes ...... and I'm proud of it ................ not some air conditioned wool carpeted market room.

Facts are very easy to manufacture, but here are some of my facts, based on 25 years of working in the industry and not based on speaking about it for the past couple of years because the price of a barrel of crude has constantly broke records every month.

EVERY oil company I have personally ran completions for over the past 20 years has demanded lower well costs and higher returns for their dollar. EVERY oil company I have personally ran completions for over the past 20 years have taken no excuses for deferment of oil production due to NPT (non productive time) from any service provider, fines are based on delay of oil production as well as hourly and daily rig rental and equipment hire rates.

There are oil fields being discovered at this very moment that pale the last 70 years of exploration into insignificance, there are enough reserves in the fields currently producing at 100% to keep the planet moving at its current rate for the next 200 years ........... this does not take into account the fields newly discovered and not yet producing ............. as well as the fields not yet discovered, and does not take into account the new technology that is constantly emerging that allows absolute maximum production of the currently discovered wells ....... I think I mentioned water injection before, but there are also smart completions, inflatable screens and packers etc that allow oil to be exstracted from fine sands that were impossible only a few years ago.

The oil industry historically shows a drop in supply and uses scare tactics to hike prices on a regular basis ........ OPEC and the major companies have share holders who cant spend the money they have now in ten life times, yet they still corner the price and push it higher and higher.

I (and a hundred like me) am working in a climate at present that has me able to pick and choose who I work for, to put my price on the table and sit back and watch them fight for it, to chop and change when it suits MY will. This is the first time in over 3 decades that the technical workforce are spread thinly enough that the oil companies are scrambling to pick us up at any price ............ we are spread thin as a result of the wells currently waiting to be pumped ............ NONE of them are owned by Arabs at present, almost all of them are New World wells as we refer to them. India, Africa, Eastern Europe, Gulf of Mexico.

I dont know about markets etc ................... but I do know that I am being offered jobs all over the world at the moment ....... some of these projects are for templates with up to 20 production wells and 5 to 10 injection wells ....... very large fields ........... 20 to 30 year life expectancy fields.

In short ........... OIL COMPANIES HAVE ENOUGH SAY TO PUSH A BBL UP TO $200 SOONER THAN YOU WOULD LIKE.


Buy shares in GE, Haliburton, Schlumberger, Chevron, Shell and BP. 3 oil companies and 3 international service providers that are currently spending LARGE amounts of money on new development projects. If shares are your thing that is.

I dont have computer and book smarts about markets and agencies ......... but the industry is a small world, we constantly communicate to each other, we constantly laugh at the news that is given to the world ...... ie, the so called shortage of oil that is just around the corner. YES ....... the supply of oil WILL run out ........ obviously ......... but not in any of our life times ...... nor our childrens or their childrens ............ dont believe everything you read ............ you dont even have to believe me if you dont want to. However, I am at the front line of what is ACTUALLY going on in the industry ........... and at present, my job is safe for the next 100 years, there is a lot of the stuff down there that we know of, who knows how much is down there in places we dont know of?

[Tonto]

Thanks Dave!

[US_Tank]

Awesome Parkster.  I have shares!   Its smart money!

[Djaric]

Anyone else feel sick when they hear/see news stories on Dubai and those other arab countries where gas is $.34/gallon and they run their air conditioners with gas fueled generators?  (Ok that last part was an exageration)