The Bush Stimulus Package.

[Tonto]

It looked like this was a done deal....but now the Senate.......

[US_Tank]

Ya know, I re-assessed this whole thing and I am not so sure that it is a good thing!

[tafdom]

Ya know, I re-assessed this whole thing and I am not so sure that it is a good thing!

What did I tell you from the start. It didn't work in 01 or 03 and it wont work now. Things a worse now then from the enegry and food costs alone. Throw in the subprime blowup and the whole thing went straight to hell. All you see is what I post here. I am more involved in the markets and economics than you are in your job. I am giving you a prediction right here and now.  The next huge ax to fall in the money markets will be the credit / card companies. What do you think the people that fell in the subprime have lived on?  Mark my words. If I could type better this 54 year old would teach you something. [ROTF]

[US_Tank]

Well Terry the rebate is different from the tax cuts.  There is a difference!

[Skipper the cigar aFISHinodo]

Just my view...

The housing market:  who bought the houses?  Did someone put a gun to the homeowners' heads and force them to buy houses at variable interest rates? No.

WE (taxpayers) now are bailing out certain homeowners because they made a very poor decision and it is effecting the market.  Why don't we all receive special services if we own a home???  Just because I bought mine within budget and managed my money correctly doesn't mean I should bail out someone that was stupid enought to overspend. Next,

The tax rebate:  I believe it will stimulate the economy, but I don't buy into the "drastic decline" like the media is spinning these days.  I think Bush was handed a declining economy.  He was implementing measures to bring it back, but then 9/11 struck.  We did not go into recession like all the experts predicted.  Bush may not be the best public speaker, but he sure did keep us out of a recession then, which most people could not have done!

The tax rebate will stimulate the economy to some extent, but the people receiving the money will have to decide what and where they need to spend that money.  It should come with no strings attached...why?  Because we are (or used to be) a country that was not controlled by the government.  Money we earn should be saved if we want it saved.  If the retail stores are having a rough year they should not increase inventory for the next year (HELLO!).  We must be aware of the media stories encouraging us to bail out the stores.  That's not our fault...we should NOT feel guilty for spending less or buying elsewhere.

Bottomline...the rebate will help, but the impact of the help is and should be left up to the person receiving the rebate.  Sorry I was on my soap box...I'm stepping down now...LOL

Bingo, Well said.

[US_Tank]

The tax cuts back in 01 and 03 worked.  Record jobs were created, unemployment fell to just over 4%, the treasure has never seen dollars of the magnitude influxed into it.  However, we spent like crazy and we funded a war.

My thought on the rebate is this:  We are trying to inject a stimulus into a recession that is not a recession.  From the sounds of it we won't even get the checks until August.  Some political analysts say that this is a political ploy during an election season and I can go along with that.

Bottom line in my eyes, and I am open to hear otherwise, is  that we acually have to borrow dollars from the economy to do this.  Now I think somebody before me mentioned this and it got me thinking. 

To received a rebate, nobody has to work.  Nobody has to save.  Nobody has to invest or create new wealth.  GWB thinks that it inject new money into the economy therefore increasing production.  However, for every dollar used for this it must first be taxed and then borrowed out of the economy.  Its just recycled money.  There are no new spending powers created, its just redistriubution from one group to another.

What say you guys?

 

[tafdom]

All you see of me is what I post here and trying to laugh at something. I am aware it's not a tax cut but it is part of the stumulus pack. I am a business man and I more than follow the market, I play it.  With all due respect I eat drink and sleep the economy and markets. I spend more time on it then you do your job.LOL   Where did you think the money was going to come from. The #s you and I see are way different. The last package only brought .6 of the money back to the register. You state that everything is great where you  are and inflation doesn't exist. I have stated that we tanked from the subprime, energy and food and we haven't hit the bottom. Tell Kraft that costs didn't up after reporting a 40%, yes 40% increase in dairy costs, 70mil in energy cost. I see it every day and have seen it for the last 5 months. I have seen every CEO of the dji and most of the ixic in the last 5 months telling why things suck and they didn't make there #s. I spend 4 hours a day just watching and listening to conference calls. Fed cuts have always had a negative effect on the stock market driving it lower, Why has that changed? BTY the Stimulus has already passed the house but will get slowed in the senate. Not everyone will get the money, don't know who said that but they must not follow whats going on just what they have heard. More to follow.

[Skipper the cigar aFISHinodo]

Look, things are regional. Where I am it is not uncommon to see people on the verge of homelessness. You see them with $5 k-mart rags, 17 years old, with a kid in a broken down stroller, fairly unkempt, and a $400 I-phone.

Similarly, there are tons of people that save save save, then when something like this comes along they say: "screw it, I am going to blow it on something..." stupid, I've been wanting, etc. My mom used to call things like this her "mad money". The handful of people who do this will help a great deal. Then there are those who actually will bank this. OK, the S&L's need help too.

Ok, next topic. Recession? What is recession? Why is there a magic condition or threshold that when passed, poof, it's formally a recession. $1 defines recession vs non-recession? And why wait for the switch to be flipped? The path to troubled economic times is linear. Analog and not digital. No point in waiting for some reporter to use the "r" word.


In short, I look at this like I would any US bail-out to any other nation. Only this time they are bailing out home. Works for me.

[tafdom]

All too true Skip. The r word has been thrown around by many but means nothing until the economic #s match. Housing, money supply, and an inverted yield curve.

 Recession indicator that has called six consecutive recessions with no misses and no false positives dating back to 1962. The condition is an inverted yield curve as measured by the 10-year Treasury yield minus the fed funds rate, in conjunction with an annual rate of change falling below zero on the CPI-adjusted monetary base. Another factor has been brought to light is the Mc Donalds, yes the hamburger indicator. It has nothing to do with going on a health diet, but everything to do with going on a spending diet. The world’s largest restaurant chain reported its worst monthly result in almost five years – saying December sales were flat. Pretty shocking considering the fact that every day one-quarter of the U.S. population eats there.

[clarkoz]

I say again...the American people should not be held responsible for the decline in the housing market.  Did any of you force someone or be forced to purchase a house that you now have to foreclose on?

It's the media, it's the media, it's the media...they harp on decline here and here and here and everyone rushes to recession and panics!

Think about this:  Our economy has been very good considering 9/11 incident.  It will always rise and fall.  The interest rate rarely effects anyone when it is lowered unless you are rich and live off of interest, which most people are not!  If anything the drop in interest might stimulate purchasing vehicles, houses, etc.  Also, the retailers are bound to hit a ceiling in sales sooner or later.  Our country is growing, but not as much as the retailers predict profit.  It is obvious that they over shot their year end numbers, but that is their own fault.  They are predicting the unpredictable.  Some times they are close, but sometimes they are just completely incorrect.

I still haven't heard any person explain that we are increasing in technology and the result is a decrease in other types of jobs.  Manual labor is not the market that is booming these days, but many Americans have a manual labor job.  One day the transition will be complete and the cycle will role over from the technology industry to something that we don't see coming!

How about we all start thinking for ourselves instead of depending on talking media heads to think for us.  It's almost like a brain washing is occurring across America.

Smoke on fellas!